金融开放下离岸人民币市场新风险——外汇衍生品隐形负债的估算

New Risks in the Offshore RMB Markets under Financial Opening——Estimation of Invisible Liabilities for Foreign Exchange Derivatives

金融开放新模式推动了离岸人民币外汇衍生品交易的快速增长。作为一种抵押贷款,市场主体通过外汇衍生品获得的表外负债不易被监管当局所掌握。据我们估算,在实际对冲需求之外的表外隐形负债规模高达2.8万亿元人民币,并以短期负债为主;每日负债到期规模高达1600亿元人民币,该规模将随着外资流入而进一步提高。离岸衍生品下的隐形负债具有不透明、期限错配等问题,会给我国在岸外汇市场和证券市场带来一系列的潜在风险。为此,我们建议推动跨境监管合作、创新建设上海人民币离岸市场、扩大资本项目双向开放、打造全球人民币金融安全网。

The opening of the financial markets will promote the rapid growth of offshore RMB foreign exchange derivatives transactions.As a mortgage loan,off-balance sheet liabilities caused by foreign exchange derivatives are not easy to be grasped by regulatory authorities.According to our estimation,the scale of invisible off-balance-sheet liabilities beyond actual hedging needs is as high as 2.8 trillion Yuan,mainly short-term liabilities.The daily matured amount is as high as 160 billion Yuan,and this scale will be further increased with the inflow of foreign capital.Invisible liabilities under offshore derivatives have problems such as opacity and maturity mismatches,and will bring potential risks to onshore foreign exchange and securities markets.To this end,we propose to promote cross-border regulatory cooperations,innovatively build Shanghai offshore market functions,expand the two-way opening of capital accounts,and create a global RMB financial safety net.