基于公平性与可持续视角下的养老保险基金中央调剂制度研究

Research on the Central Adjustment System of Pension Insurance Fund from the Perspective of Fairness and Sustainability

基于人口跨省流动和省级统筹视角,分析了企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度的最优上解比例。研究发现:首先,中央调剂制度最优上解比例可分解为两部分,一部分上解比例体现了养老保险基金跨省调剂公平性,另一部分上解比例则提高了养老保险基金整体可持续性;其次,按最优上解比例进行省际再分配养老保险基金既能保证调剂公平性又能提高养老保险基金整体可持续性;再次,养老保险参保赡养率因人口老龄化而持续上升背景下,即使借助最优上解比例跨省调剂基金,2050年也仍会出现养老保险基金收支庞大缺口;最后,如果实施推迟法定退休年龄制度并且按最优上解比例调剂基金,那么能有效缓解未来养老保险基金支出负担,因此现阶段迫切需要实施最优上解比例和推迟法定退休年龄相结合的制度改革。

Based on cross-provincial flow of population and provincial overall planning, this paper studies the optimal solution ratio of the central adjustment system about the basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees. The study finds that the optimal solution ratio of the central adjustment system can be decomposed into two parts. One part reflects the fairness of pension insurance fund adjustments across provinces, and the other part improves the overall sustainability of pension insurance funds. Besides, inter-provincial redistribution of pension insurance funds with the optimal solution ratio can not only ensure the equality of the adjustments, but also improve the sustainability of pension insurance funds. What’s more, in the context of population aging and the increase in the pension insurance support rate, even with the implementation of the optimal solution ratio to redistribute the inter-provincial pension fund, there will still be a huge gap in 2050. Finally, if the legal postponement of retirement age is implemented and adjusting the fund by using the optimal solution ratio, the burden of future pension insurance expenditure can be effectively alleviated. Therefore, the implementation of the system reform that combines the optimal solution ratio and the postponement of the retirement age is imminent.