子女抚养负担对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证分析

The Influence of Child-rearing Burden on the Allocation of Household Risk Financial Assets:An Empirical Analysis Based on China Household Finance Survey

以2017年中国家庭金融调查数据为样本,将子女数量定义为子女抚养负担,采用Probit模型和Tobit模型,实证研究子女抚养负担对家庭风险金融资产配置的影响及作用机制。结果表明,子女抚养负担的增加会显著降低家庭风险金融资产投资概率和占比。异质性分析显示,子女抚养负担的增加对城镇地区、东部省份以及中高收入家庭风险金融资产投资概率和占比的负向影响更大。机制分析表明,由于人口流动效应的存在,在人口净流入的情况下,子女抚养负担的增加对家庭风险金融资产投资概率和占比的抑制作用有所促进。此外,子女抚养负担的加重会促使家庭增加预防性储蓄,从而减少家庭风险金融资产的投资概率和占比。

Using data from the 2017 Chinese Household Finance Survey as samples, this paper defines the number of children as child-rearing burden. Probit model and Tobit model are used to analyze the influence and the mechanism of child-rearing burden on the allocation of household risk financial assets. The results show that the increase of child-rearing burden significantly reduces the investment probability and the proportion of household risk financial assets. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the increase of child-rearing burden has greater negative impact on the investment probability and proportion of risk financial assets in urban areas, eastern provinces and middle and high income families. Mechanism analysis shows that due to the population migration effect, the increase of child-rearing burden promotes the inhibitory effect of the investment probability and proportion of household risk financial assets under the condition of net population inflow. In addition, the increasing burden of child-rearing encourages households to increase precautionary savings, thus reducing the probability and proportion of household investment in risk financial assets.