1995年以来黄河下游碳储量时空变化及驱动因素

Temporal and Spatial Variation and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in the Lower Yellow River Since 1995

定量分析碳储量的时空演变规律、探寻碳储量驱动因素对实现碳中和目标具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用InVEST模型与LMDI方法,分析1995-2015年间黄河下游各县域碳储量的时空变化,重点关注城镇(人口、土地)快速扩张对碳储量变化的驱动作用.研究发现:(1)黄河下游地区碳储量呈减少趋势,1995-2015年间减少6.4%.高值区主要分布在人口稀疏和海拔相对较高的山地林区,低值区主要集中于经济发达的市辖区和水域富饶的县域.(2)2000-2015年间人口规模、人口城镇化、土地城镇化与碳储存强度对碳储量的变化具有双向作用,人口城镇化推进对碳储量减少的异向作用最强,碳储存强度下降对碳储量减少的同向作用最强.(3)4种因素作用机制的空间分异较为明显.农业大县的人口规模异向作用最强烈,中原城市群、山东半岛城市群外围县域人口城镇化异向作用最强烈,而这两大城市群中心城市周边县域土地城镇化异向作用最强烈.碳储存强度的同向作用整体呈现"北强南弱"的格局.(4)碳储量驱动机制不同的县域应该因地制宜地探寻固碳与碳增储路径.

It is of great theoretical and practical significance to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon storage and explore the driving factors of carbon storage for achieving the goal of carbon neutralization.Therefore,this study used InVEST model and LMDI method to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in counties in the lower reaches of the Yellow River from 1995 to 2015,focusing on the driving effect of rapid expansion of cities and towns(population and land)on carbon storage changes.It is found that:(1)The carbon storage in the lower reaches of the Yellow River decreased by 6.4%from 1995 to 2015.The high-value areas are mainly distributed in mountainous forest areas with sparse population and relatively high altitude,while the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in economically developed municipal districts and counties with rich waters.(2)Population scale,population urbanization,land urbanization and carbon storage intensity have two-way effects on the change of carbon storage during 2000-2015.Population urbanization has the strongest effect on carbon storage reduction in different directions,while carbon storage intensity has the strongest effect on carbon storage reduction in the same direction.(3)The spatial differentiation of the four factors is obvious.The population scale of large agricultural counties has the strongest abnormal role,and the county and the population urbanization outside the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomerations is the most powerful,while the land urbanization around the central cities of these two urban agglomerations is the most powerful.The isotropic effect of carbon storage strength presents a pattern of“north strong and south weak”.(4)Counties with different driving mechanisms of carbon storage should explore the path of carbon sequestration and carbon storage according to local conditions.