中国1940年代“偏暖”的资料问题

Warmth’of China in the 1940s Due to Inhomogeneous Data

利用多套中国近百年气温观测资料和台站历史沿革信息,通过还原和对比分析早期发表的百年气温序列,探讨分析了20世纪40年代“偏暖”记录的资料问题。结果表明:20世纪50年代初大量台站迁移造成观测序列非均一性问题,导致了早期气温记录相对偏高。因而,基于原始资料构建的中国百年气温序列在20世纪40年代有一个明显的暖峰,而基于均一化资料构建的序列则无此暖峰,由此估算的中国百年气候增暖趋势(1.41℃/100 a)大于早期的大部分估算结果。

On the basis of several datasets of temperature observations for the recent century and the metadata of each station,problems for the warm bias in the 1940s was explored in this work,partly via the reconstruction of the early developed temperature series.The results indicated that relocations of most stations in the early 1950s were the main reason for inhomogeneities and caused relatively warm biases in earlier records.Therefore,the temperature series based on the original data has a distinct warm peak in the 1940s,while the series based on the homogenized data does not exhibit this warm peak.The new temperature series for China has a long-term warming trend of 1.41°C/100 a,which is larger than most of the early estimates.