进境马匹非洲马瘟传入风险分析

Risk Analysis on African Horse Sickness Introduced by Imported Horses

我国已被世界动物卫生组织(OIE)认可为非洲马瘟(African horse sickness,AHS)历史无疫国家。2020年泰国、马来西亚发生的AHS疫情,对我国防范AHS传入带来了极大压力。为有效防止AHS传入,基于OIE风险分析框架,利用OIE风险评估矩阵,从传入评估、暴露评估和后果评估三个角度,分析进境马匹传入AHS的风险。结果显示:传入评估的生物学因素风险为“高”,国家因素风险为“中”,商品因素风险为“高”,综合传入风险为“中”;暴露评估的生物学因素风险为“高”,国家因素风险为“高”,商品因素风险为“高”,综合暴露风险为“高”;AHS传入将会给我国马属动物相关产业带来不可估量的损失,传入后造成的后果风险为“非常高”。综合传入评估、暴露评估和后果评估三方面风险分析结果,判定AHS随进境马匹传入我国的整体风险为高。建议采取严格产地预检、进口后隔离检疫等风险管理措施,有效控制AHS传入。

China is a historically African horse sickness(ASH)free country recognized by World Organization for Animal Health(OIE).However,huge pressure to the prevention of the disease was brought by AHS outbreak occurred in Thailand and Malaysia in 2020.In order to efectively prevent any introduction of the disease,the entry risk via imported horses was analyzed based on entry assessment,exposure assessment and consequence assessment by using OIE risk assessment matrix and risk analysis framework.The results showed that,for entry assessment,the biological factor risk,national factor risk,commodity factor risk and comprehensive entry risk were“high”,“medium”,“high”and“medium”,respectively;and for exposure assessment,the biological factor risk,national factor risk,commodity factor risk and comprehensive exposure risk were both“high”;any introduction of AHS would bring immeasurable losses to the industries related to equine in China,and the consequence risk in the event of any introduction was“extremely high”.Based on the results of risk analysis of entry assessment,exposure assessment and consequence assessment,it was determined that the risk of AHS introduced into China via imported horses was high in general.In view of that,it was suggested to take risk management measures including strict pre-inspection at place of origin and quarantine upon arrival of imported horses to efectively control any introduction of AHS.