基于Prophet算法的配电网线路峰值负荷预测

Peak Load Forecasting of Distribution Network Lines Based on Prophet Algorithm

对配电网线路进行负荷峰值预测,准确预测将出现重过载的线路,能为配电网制定供电计划提供重要参考。分析配电网线路历史负荷受节假日、季节影响的变化规律,提出基于Prophet的配电网线路峰值负荷预测方法,对每条线路单独建立Prophet模型,模型以历史日峰值负荷数据为输入数据,且通过自适调参方法对模型的变点增长率及变点个数参数进行调优,最后对实际数据进行算例分析,验证了该方法可准确实现配电网线路峰值负荷预测。

The peak load prediction of distribution network lines and the accurate prediction of impending overload lines can provide an important reference for the formulation of the power supply plan of distribution networks.This paper analyzes the variation law of historical data of distribution network lines being subject to holidays and seasons,puts forward the distribution network line peak load forecasting method based on Prophet,and establishes a Prophet model for each of the lines.The model takes the historical daily peak load data as the input data and optimizes its change point growth rate and change point number through the adaptive parameter adjustment method.Finally,an example analysis is carried out on the actual data to verify that the method can accurately fulfill peak load forecasting of distribution network lines.