数字普惠金融、政府干预与县域经济增长——基于门限面板回归的实证分析

DIGITAL INCLUSIVE FINANCE,GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION AND COUNTY ECONOMIC GROWTH——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Panel Regression

数字普惠金融提高了县域经济体的信贷可得性,有助于县域经济增长,而其发展过程离不开政府的支持和引导。本文运用2014-2018年县级面板数据,通过门限面板回归模型研究政府干预在数字普惠金融影响县域经济增长时的调节作用。研究发现:(1)数字普惠金融对县域经济增长有显著的促进作用,且政府干预起到调节作用。同时,子指标回归显示,数字普惠金融覆盖广度与县域经济增长负相关;数字化程度和使用深度对县域经济增长有促进作用,政府干预的作用与主回归一致。(2)数字普惠金融通过完善传统金融市场结构促进县域经济增长。(3)分地区看,东部地区数字普惠金融与县域经济增长负相关;中部地区和西部地区数字普惠金融对县域经济增长均有促进作用。其中,中部地区政府的调节作用是单向的,西部地区则为倒U型,本文分析了地区差异的内在原因并提出政策建议。

Digital inclusive finance increases the availability of credit to traditionally disadvantaged groups which contributes to county-level economic growth in China.Government intervention plays an essential role in the development of digital inclusive finance.Based on the county-level panel data from 2014 to 2018,this paper estimates the moderating effect of government intervention on county-level economic growth that is caused exogenously by digital inclusive finance using threshold panel regression.The results show that:(1)Digital inclusive finance has a positive effect on county economic growth,and government intervention plays a moderating role.Specifically,the digitization and depth of digital inclusive finance usage positively affect county-level economic growth and government intervention plays the same role.(2)Digital inclusive finance promotes county economic growth by adjusting traditional financial market structure.(3)In terms of different regions,in the eastern region,digital inclusive finance has a restraining effect on county economic growth;in the central region,digital inclusive finance has a positive effect on county economic growth,and government intervention plays one-way moderating effect;in the western region,the moderating effect of government intervention is inverted U-shaped.This paper further analyzes the fundamental causes of regional differences and provide practical policy suggestions.