长三角地区能源消费碳排放驱动因素分析及优化策略

Analysis of Driving Factors and Optimization Strategies of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta

应用LMDI因素分解法与基于岭回归估计的修正STIRPAT模型,基于1997-2016年的时间序列数据,实证分析长三角地区能源消费碳排放驱动因素。研究结果表明,经济产出、人口规模是正反馈驱动因素,分别促进产生186 215.76万吨、14 421.71万吨碳排放,能源强度和能源结构是负反馈驱动因素,分别抑制产生93 253.01万吨、4 082.47万吨碳排放。经济产出、人口规模、能源强度和能源结构因素每增加1%,二氧化碳排放量随之增加0.845?4%、2.293 5%、0.832 8%和1.933 3%。在生态文明建设进入新时期和长三角区域一体化发展上升为国家战略的时代背景下,要加速推动经济发展方式向低碳集约型转变,加快新能源绿色化变革,在生态补偿、产业链升级、公共服务等方面建立一体化发展新机制,促进长三角地区可持续高质量发展。

Based on time series data from 1997 to 2016,we systemically applied the LMDI factor decomposition method and the modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation to analyzes the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region.The results showed that economic output,population scale are positive feedback driving factors,which promoted the production of 1 862.157 6 million tons and 144.217 1 million tons of carbon emissions;the energy intensity and energy structure are negative feedback driving factors,which inhibited the production of 932.530?1 million tons and 40.824 7 million tons of carbon emissions.For every 1% increase in the economic output,population scale factors,carbon emissions increased by 0.845 4% and 2.293 5% respectively.On the other hand,for every 1% increase in the energy intensity and energy structure factors,carbon emissions decreased by 0.832 8% and 1.933 3% respectively.With the rise of ecological civilization construction and regional integration as a national strategy,the Yangtze River Delta region should shift to a low-carbon mode,to accelerate the green transformation of new energy,and to promote the development of high-quality integration in the Yangtze River Delta region.