基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的城市示范区域人均碳排放量预测方法研究

Study on Forecasting Method of Per Capita Carbon Emissions in Urban Demonstration Area Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

为了实现减少碳排放的目标,国家大力推进了生态、低碳示范区域的建设,然而这类示范区域的碳排放量数据几乎没有得到统计,这对进一步分析示范区域的低碳措施、产业结构优化等问题造成了一定的困难。论文提出了一种预测城市示范区域人均碳排放量的方法,该方法基于示范区域低碳综合发展情况超前于所在城市发展的事实以及环境库兹涅茨曲线的科学理念,在此之上,利用城市的碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线模型预测城市示范区域的人均碳排放量。以18个国家级新区为例进行统计计算,结果表明该方法能够预测出大多数新区的碳排放量数据,东部新区人均碳排放量分布于5~14吨CO_(2)/人的范围内,中部新区人均碳排放量大致范围为3~8吨CO_(2)/人,西部新区人均碳排放量在2~14吨CO_(2)/人之间。

In order to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions,the country has vigorously promoted the construction of ecological and low-carbon demonstration areas.However,the carbon emission data of such demonstration areas have hardly been statistically collected,which makes it difficult to further analyze the low-carbon measures,industrial structure optimization and other issues in the demonstration areas.Based on the fact that the low-carbon comprehensive development of the demonstration area is ahead of the development of the city and the scientific concept of environmental Kuznets curve,this paper uses the environmental Kuznets curve model of urban carbon emission to predict the per capita carbon emission of the demonstration area.In this study,18 national new areas were taken as examples for statistical calculation.The results show that this method can predict the carbon emission data of most of the new areas.The per capita carbon emissions of the eastern new area is distributed in the range of 5-14 tons of CO_(2)/person,the per capita carbon emissions of the central new area is about 3-8 tons of CO_(2)/person,and per capita carbon emissions of the western new area is between 2-14 tons of CO_(2)/person.