摘要
为科学、有效地对国家中心城市绿色交通水平进行测度,识别影响和制约国家中心城市绿色交通发展的关键因素,论文基于DPSIR模型构建国家中心城市绿色交通水平测度指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法对指标优化并赋权,建立基于集对分析与可变模糊集的国家中心城市绿色交通水平测度模型,采用贡献度和障碍度识别影响和制约国家中心城市绿色交通发展的重要指标,最后以西安市为例进行实证性分析。研究结果表明:(1)2011-2018年西安市绿色交通水平整体基本呈现“稳步上升”态势,绿色交通水平等级由“较差”转变为“中等”;(2)经济社会发展和人口增长等驱动力层面因素和空气污染、交通拥堵等影响层面因素是影响西安市绿色交通水平提升的主要因素;(3)人口密度、人均GDP和万车事故率是制约西安市绿色交通水平发展的关键性指标。研究结论不仅可以为国家中心城市和其他城市绿色交通水平测度提供借鉴,还可以为城市管理部门制定绿色交通发展政策提供理论依据。
In order to scientifically and effectively measure the green transportation level of national central cities,and identify the key factors affecting and restricting the development of green transportation of national central cities,the green transportation level measurement index system of national central cities based on DPSIR model was established.The combination method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method was adopted to optimize the index system and determine the weight of each indicator.The green transportation level measurement model of national central cities was constructed based on the set pair analysis and variable fuzzy set model.Both the contribution degree model and the obstacle degree model were introduced to identify the important indicators affecting and restricting the development of green transportation in national central cities.Finally,Xi’an is taken as an example for the empirical analysis.The results show that the overall level of green transportation in Xi’an basically presents the trend of “steady rise” from 2011 to 2018,and the level of green transportation changes from “poor” to “medium”.The driving factors (e.g.,economic and social development,population growth) and the influencing factors (e.g.,air pollution,traffic congestion) are the main factors affecting the green transportation level of Xi’an.Population density,per capita GDP and accident rate per 10 000 vehicles are the key indicators restricting the green transportation level of Xi’an.The research conclusions cannot only provide reference for the measurement of green transportation level in national central cities and other cities,but also provide theoretical basis for urban management authorities to formulate green transportation development policies.
作者
马壮林
高阳
安韬
熊英
马飞
MA Zhuanglin;GAO Yang;AN Tao;XIONG Ying;MA Fei(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China;Xi’an Traffic Information Center,Xi’an Shaanxi 710005,China;School of Economics and Management,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2022年第4期85-93,114,共10页
Ecological Economy
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“面向缓解大城市交通拥堵的群体诱导策略研究”(18YJCZH130)
陕西省自然科学基金重点项目“纯电动公交充电站多周期选址与充电调度优化研究”(2021JZ-20)
西安市2020年度社会科学规划基金重点项目“西安市绿色交通水平测度指标体系研究”(JG96)。
