基于碳达峰碳中和的贵州省土地利用碳排放演变及预测研究

Research Evolution of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in Guizhou Province Based on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and the According Predictions

基于碳达峰、碳中和研究背景,结合贵州省2005-2019年土地利用面板数据,运用多学科交叉的研究方法,探究并预测土地利用碳排放演变规律,结果表明:(1)2005-2019年,研究区净碳排放量呈波动增长的趋势,碳源主要来自建设用地,碳汇则来自林地和耕地。(2)由灰色关联度可知,各类土地对净碳排放的影响依次为耕地>未利用地>林地>园地>建设用地>牧草地>水域。(3)根据预测结果,2020-2030年土地利用碳排放呈线性增长趋势,且净碳排放实际值和预测值的一致性受人类活动的影响。(4)贵州省减排降碳关键在于优化土地利用结构,严格控制土地农转非。研究区应抓住2030年前实现碳达峰的发展关键期,促进经济的快速增长,同时进一步发挥土地利用碳汇的固碳减排作用,通过优化国土空间规划减少碳源的排放量,探索2060年前实现碳中和的路径。

Based on the research background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,combined with the land use panel data of Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2019,this paper uses multidisciplinary research methods to explore and predict the evolution of land use carbon emissions.The results show:(1) The net carbon emissions in the study area showed a fluctuating growth trend from 2005 to 2019.The carbon source mainly came from construction land,and the carbon sink came from forest land and cultivated land.(2) It can be seen from the gray correlation degree that the impact of various types of land on net carbon emissions is cultivated land>unused land>forest land>garden land>construction land>pasture grassland>water area.(3) According to the forecast results,land use carbon emissions will increase linearly from 2020 to 2030,and the consistency of actual and predicted net carbon emissions will be affected by human activities.(4) The key to reducing emissions and carbon emissions in Guizhou Province is to optimize the structure of land use and strictly control the conversion of land from agriculture to non-agricultural purposes.The research area should seize the critical period of achieving carbon peaks before 2030,promote rapid economic growth,and at the same time,further exert the role of land use carbon sinks in carbon sequestration and emission reduction,and reduce carbon source emissions by optimizing national land space planning,and then explore the path to carbon neutrality by 2060.