欧盟的法国化趋向及其影响

European Union’s Frenchification Tendency and Its Impact

近年来,欧盟在一体化发展方向、经济发展理念及战略文化等方面均出现了明显的法国化趋向。一是欧元区的货币政策及欧盟层面的财政政策具有更多的再分配性质,体现法国的团结要求;二是法国根深蒂固的“经济爱国主义”更多转化为欧盟层面的工业政策及保护主义;三是法式概念“欧洲主权“”战略自主”正成为欧盟的地缘政治诉求。欧盟的法国化趋向既是马克龙政府努力的结果,更与世界形势及欧盟内部变化密切相关,特别是美国社会、政治生态变化及英国脱欧。综合看,欧盟的法国化是长期趋势,但亦非线性发展,可能随着法国政府、欧盟内部及世界形势的变化而出现阶段性调整;其最终结果也不确定,欧盟可能更为联邦化,也可能因内部紧张加剧而分裂和倒退。欧盟的法国化发展态势将产生深远的地缘政治影响。

In recent years, the European Union has shown an obvious tendency of Frenchification in the direction of integration, the concept of economic development and the strategic culture. First, redistribution has been reflected in the monetary policy of the Euro Zone and in the fiscal policy of the EU, which shows the requirement of solidarity by France;second, France’s deep-rooted“economic patriotism”is being transformed, to a greater extent, into industrial policy and protectionism in the EU;third, the French concepts of“European sovereignty”and“strategic autonomy”are becoming the EU’s geopolitical demand. The tendency of Frenchification of the EU is not only the result of efforts of Macron’s government, but also more closely related to the global situation and changes within the EU, particularly the changes of the American society and political landscape as well as the Brexit. The Frenchification of the EU could lead to a more federalized EU, or lead to separation and retrogression due to increased internal tensions. The EU’s Frenchified development will have a profound geopolitical influence.