汇率制度变迁会影响企业进口产品质量吗?

Will Exchange Rate Regime Alteration Affect the Quality of Imported Goods?

基于企业异质性视角,本文研究了汇率制度安排对企业进口产品质量的影响。从理论的角度,本文发现,随着企业生产率的提升,企业进口产品质量下降;随着双边汇率制度安排灵活性下降,企业进口产品质量会显著提高。从实证的角度,本文不仅采用细分的企业产品层面数据验证了本文提出的机制,而且通过中介效应模型分析了汇率制度的成本渠道以及企业的创新替代渠道。在考虑了不同样本分类标准、多产品企业、企业过去的进口行为、遗漏变量问题以及内生性问题,并更换测算方法之后,本文的主要研究结论依然稳健。

Since China is in the process of exchange rate reform,the exchange rate arrangements with trade partner nations will change eventually.Such alteration will not only affect macroeconomic variables,but also exert implications on international trade,especially on the import side.Based on the theory of firms’heterogeneity in trade,this paper has studied how the alteration of the bilateral exchange rate arrangements affects the quality of imported goods.Theoretically,this paper believes that the quality of imported goods is higher while the bilateral exchange rate arrangements are less flexible,because less flexible arrangements mean firms have lower trade cost and their financial constrain problems,namely the channel of trade cost,could be more relieved.This paper also finds that the quality of imported goods decreases with the increase of firms’productivity,because less productive firms have to import high quality goods to enhance their capability of innovation by learning the technology brought by the high quality of imported goods.When their productivity increases,these firms no longer need to import high quality of imported goods,which is the substitute effects of firms’innovation.Empirically,this paper has used highly detailed firm-product level data to verify the mentioned mechanism.The results are identical to theoretical expectation.This paper also uses the intermediary effects model to verify the trade cost channel with exchange rate arrangements and the substitute effects of firms’innovation.Considering different samples,multi-product firms,the previous import experiences,different calculation methods,omitting variable problems and endogeneity problems,the main conclusions still hold.The results of this paper can indicate such policy suggestions.On one hand,under fixed exchange rate regime,firms with low productivity can import goods with high quality to enhance innovation and productivity by“spillover effects of technology”and“learning by doing”.Yet with the development of economy and science in China,the productivity of Chinese firms is enhanced dramatically,and their innovation capability can substitute the imported goods with high quality.On the other hand,fixed exchange rate regime can increase the quality of imported goods by relieving firms’financial constraint.Yet with the development of multilevel capital markets,firms have more financing channels so that their financial constraint problem can be eased by financial development,making fixed exchange rate regime less important.Once the Chinese firms can substitute high quality imported goods with their innovative capability,China can take the opportunity to open the capital account and make the exchange rate more flexible and finally realize RMB internationalization.