“断直连”等监管新政对第三方支付影响商业银行盈利能力的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of New Regulatory Solicies such as“Disconnection and Direct Connection”on the Profitability of Commercial Banks

近年来,我国互联网技术不断发展壮大,带动了以互联网技术为支撑的电子商务的快速发展。第三方支付作为互联网金融的典型代表,由于其支付的便捷性以及在电子商务中起到的关键作用,使其对整个社会都产生了广泛而深刻的影响。如今获得支付牌照的机构已达两百多家,在激烈的市场竞争下,第三方支付平台不当操作、违规经营现象时有发生,引发一系列信用风险、市场风险。为了有效控制风险,监管机构不断加大监管力度。在央行监管下,2019年1月14日,各支付机构已经100%实现“断直连”和“备付金全额交付”。本文在“断直联”“备用金集中交存”政策落地前后,研究第三方支付对商业银行盈利能力的影响。本文以15家商业银行2010—2020年的半年度面板数据作为研究对象,并加以实证分析。研究发现:在新政策落地前,第三方支付对商业银行的盈利能力产生冲击,政策实施后,第三方支付有助于商业银行盈利能力的提升。基于此,本文对未来商业银行的发展提出建议。

In recent years,China’s Internet technology has been growing constantly,which drives the rapid development of e-commerce supported by Internet technology.As a typical representative of Internet finance,third-party payment has a broad and profound impact on the whole society because of its convenience of payment and its key role in e-commerce.Today,more than 200 institutions have obtained payment licenses.Under the fierce market competition,improper operation and illegal operation of third-party payment platforms occur from time to time,causing a series of credit risks and market risks.In order to effectively control risks,regulators continue to strengthen supervision.Under the supervision of the Central Bank,on January 14,2019,100%of payment institutions have achieved“disconnection and direct connection”and“full delivery of reserves”.This paper studies the impact of third-party payment on the profitability of commercial banks around the implementation of the policies of“disconnection of direct link”and“centralized deposit of reserve funds”.This paper takes the semi-annual panel data of 15 commercial banks from 2010 to 2020 as the research object and for empirical analysis.The study found that before the implementation of the new policy,the third-party payment had a strike on the profitability of commercial banks.After the implementation of the policy,the third-party payment helped to improve the profitability of commercial banks.Based on this,some suggestions are given for the development of commercial banks in the future.