从行政管控走向风险治理:中国风险应对体系建设的发展历程与逻辑

From Administrative Control towards Risk Governance: Understanding the Developmental Process and Logic of the Risk Regulation Regimes

2019年底暴发的新冠肺炎疫情,再次让中国公众感受到了风险社会的洗礼与挑战。如何有效地建设国家风险治理体系,提升风险治理能力,从而构建一个高效能的风险应对体系,已经成为当代中国国家治理体系与治理能力现代化的重要任务。结合西方风险社会和风险治理的相关理论,本文回顾了中国风险应对体系建设先后经历的行政管控、风险管理、应急管理、应急治理和风险治理五个阶段,对每个阶段在治理主体、治理对象、治理工具和治理理念方面的主要特征进行了归纳,并总结了这五个阶段的四大发展趋势,即治理主体从单中心走向一核多元,治理对象从单一风险走向综合风险,治理工具从简单走向丰富,治理理念从以"个案事件"为中心走向以"系统风险"为中心。同时,本文对强调市场失灵、舆论应对和利益集团的西方传统的风险应对体系建设的"三角理论"框架进行了分析,认为其不能有效解释中国的风险应对体系建设发展的逻辑,提出应当将其重构为包含党政体系的风险自主性、市场转型的风险重构以及社会群体的风险感知的"新三角理论"框架。结合我国风险应对体系的现状与问题,本文还从风险评估、风险预警、风险管理和风险沟通四个角度分析了当代中国风险治理体系所面临的挑战,提出了优化当代中国风险治理体系建设的政策建议。

The outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 exposed Chinese people into risk society more profoundly. It becomes an important task to build a high quality risk regulatory regime to promote its risk governance capacity for China’s national governance modernization. This paper periodizes risk regulation regimes in China into five different stages: administrative control,risk management,emergency management,emergency governance and risk governance,summarizing their characteristics from the perspectives of regulator,regulate,regulatory tools and ideas respectively. A series of developmental trends,such as from single regulator to “one core and pluralistic actors”,from single to complex risk,from insufficient to abundant tools,from individual case to systematic risk,have been discussed profoundly. Meanwhile,it argues that the triangle theoretical framework of market failure,opinion response and interest group in Western context should be reshaped to a new the triangle framework that includes state risk autonomy,risk reconstruction of market transition and risk perceptions of social group. Finally,after introducing its status quo and problems,this paper lists possible challenges faced by risk regulatory regime building in China from the perspectives of risk assessment,risk warning,risk management and risk communication. A series of policy suggestions have been discussed to promote the capacity of risk governance in China.