基于TRIZ技术进化理论的制革工艺技术成熟度预测

Predicting the maturity of leather-making technology based on TRIZ technology evolution theory

为科学预测制革工艺技术的成熟度,应用TRIZ技术进化理论,以制革专利数量、专利等级、弥补缺陷专利数量、经济收益以及皮革产品性能为评价指标,将来源于patsnap智慧芽、cnki中国知网及国家统计局等网站、机构的数据,进行多项式拟合,并将数据、曲线特点与标准S曲线进行比较。结果表明,基于铬鞣技术为主的制革工艺技术处于成熟期后期,制革行业中短期发展策略为降低生产成本、提升服务水平、提高产品感官性能,长期发展建议策略为拓展新的应用领域和开发新的制革工艺技术系统。

To scientifically predict the maturity of leather-maki ng technology,the TRIZ tech no logy evolution theory is used.Evaluation in dicators in elude the nu mber of pate nts,pate nt grades,the number of pate nts to remedy defects,economic ben efits and leather product performa nee,and the collected data from websites and institutions such as patsnap,CNKI and the National Bureau of Statistics was polynomial fitted,and compared with the stan dard S-curve.The results show that the leather-maki ng tech no logy based on chrome-ta nning system is on the late stage of maturity.The development strategies in the short and medium term are reducing costs,improving services,and improving product sensory performanee,and the Iong-term development strategy is to expa nd new applicati on areas and developme nt no vel leather-maki ng process tech no logy system.