中断还是反复——“颜色革命”中的路径依赖

Disruption or Repetition:Path Dependence during“Color Revolutions”

21世纪以来,以"颜色革命"为代表的大规模社会运动在多个国家和地区出现。随着新冠肺炎疫情的全球大流行,抗议、游行示威、骚乱也在多个国家和地区出现。社会运动不仅影响着各国国内政治的发展,也深刻牵动着世界政治形势的演变。社会运动对于不同国家造成的影响存在明显差异。本文所要探究的问题是,为何一国会反复发生社会运动并导致政权更迭。本文尝试运用路径依赖机制及相关观点,通过比较吉尔吉斯斯坦与乌兹别克斯坦应对"颜色革命"的不同方式及其影响,初步得出一国因社会运动反复导致政权更迭的原因。本文认为,不同国家应对"颜色革命"的不同策略,将形成存在明显差异的社会运动动员类型,这种差异经由路径依赖机制而得到固化,最终在特定国家形成导致"颜色革命"或中断或反复的不同互动模式。

Since the 21^(st) century,large-scale social movements represented by“color revolutions”have emerged in many countries and regions.With the COVID-19 global pandemic,protests,demonstrations and riots have also appeared in countries and regions.Social movements not only affect domestic politics in various countries,but also profoundly affect the evolution of world politics.There are obvious differences in impacts of social movements on different countries.The question which this article seeks to explore is why a country repeatedly experiences social movements which lead to regime changes.Based on the path-dependence mechanism and related viewpoints,and by comparing different ways of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in dealing with“color revolutions”and related influences,this article preliminarily concludes the reasons why regime changes repeatedly occurred in a country due to social movements.This article argues that different strategies of different countries to deal with“color revolutions”will form distinctly different types of social movement mobilization.Such differences are solidified through the path-dependence mechanism,and eventually lead to different interaction modes either disruption or repetition of“color revolutions”in a specific country.