全球茶叶贸易网络及我国茶叶出口市场格局演变特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Global Tea Trade Network and Pattern Evolution of China′s Tea Export Market

在全球经济发展一体化背景下,国际茶叶贸易联系形成复杂的网络关系。基于复杂网络分析方法,对1987-2019年的全球茶叶贸易网络进行动态分析,重点探究网络系统的结构特征、重要节点和贸易线变化以及我国茶叶出口市场的格局演变,以期更好把握全球茶叶贸易网络变化,为促进我国茶叶贸易提供有益借鉴。研究发现:1)全球茶叶产量和贸易量稳定增长,贸易网络联系日趋紧密,但国际茶叶贸易竞争更加激烈。2)肯尼亚、中国、斯里兰卡、印度、印度尼西亚、阿根廷和马拉维是全球主要的茶叶出口国家,英国、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、美国、埃及、伊朗和阿联酋是主要的茶叶进口国,英国、美国、法国和中国是全球茶叶贸易的重要中转国,并且美国后来居上成为第一中转国;此外,有茶叶生产基础从而支持出口的国家在全球茶叶贸易价值链中依然处于较低端,而依靠进口转化出口型国家(即中介中心度高的国家)有更强的茶叶深加工和价值提升能力。3)全球茶叶重要贸易线数值不断上升,但整体占比出现下降,并未出现“俱乐部收敛”现象,并且重要贸易线的交易双方存在较为稳定的输出和输入关系。4)我国茶叶出口贸易整体向好,出口比例排序为非洲>亚洲>欧洲>美洲>大洋洲。我国茶叶出口市场呈现出多点分散、部分集聚的分布格局,在西欧、东亚以及北美等国家(地区)出现萎缩,在北非、西非沿海等国家(地区)出现扩张,出口市场呈现出“一强多元”的演变趋势,摩洛哥是我国茶叶出口的第一大市场。

Under the background of the development of global economic integration,a complex tea trade network relationship was established between countries around the world.Based on the complex network analysis method,this paper dynamically analyzed the global tea trade network from 1987 to 2019,mainly explored the structural characteristics of the network system,the changes of core nodes and trade lines and the pattern evolution of China′s tea export market in order to better respond to changes of the global tea trade network and provide a useful reference for promoting China′s tea trade.It is found as follows.1)The global tea production and trade volume was growing steadily,and the trade network was increasingly close,but the international tea trade competition was more intense.2)Countries including Kenya,China,Sri Lanka,India,Indonesia,Argentina and Malawi are the major tea export countries in the world,countries including the United Kingdom,Russia,Pakistan,the United States,Egypt,Iran and UAE are the world′s major tea importers,a number of countries like the United Kingdom,the United States,France and China are important transfer stations of global tea trade and the United States has become the largest transfer station.In addition,countries that have a tea production base to support exports are still at the lower end of the global tea trade value chain,while countries that rely on imports to transform exports,that is,countries with a high degree of betweenness centrality,have a stronger ability for tea deep processing and value promoting.3)The average value of global tea trade on core trade lines continues to rise,but the overall proportion has declined,which doesn′t show the phenomenon of"club convergence",and there is a relatively stable relationship of output and input between the two countries on the major trade lines of tea.4)The overall performance of China′s tea export trade is getting better,the order of the export proportion from high to low is Africa,Asia,Europe,America,Oceania.China′s tea export market presents a multi-point scattered and partially concentrated distribution pattern,the export market has shrunk in Western Europe,East Asia,North America and other countries,and it has expanded in North Africa and West African coastal countries.There is an evolutionary trend of"multiple small markets accompany a supermarket",among them,Morocco is the absolute largest market for China′s tea exports.