黄河流域农林经济与生态环境耦合协调性研究

Study on Coupling Evaluation of Agricultural⁃Forestry Economic Construction and Ecological Environment Protection in the Yellow River Basin

为了给黄河流域农林经济与生态环境协调发展政策的制定提供参考建议,探究了黄河流域生态保护与农林经济发展间的作用机理与互动关系。从投入、产出两方面选择农林经济发展指标,从生态环境压力、状态、响应三方面选择生态环境指标,利用黄河流域34个地级市2009—2018年农林经济与生态环境数据,计算农林经济综合指数、生态环境综合指数,采用耦合协调模型计算农林经济-生态环境耦合度、农林经济-生态环境协调度,对黄河流域农林经济发展与生态环境保护间的耦合协调关系进行实证分析。结果表明:当前黄河流域大部分地区农林经济发展与生态环境保护相互作用较强、相互促进效果较好,二者耦合协调的整体发展态势良好;黄河流域农林经济-生态环境耦合协调状况具有时空差异,在时间维度上呈现稳趋势、微变动的状态,空间维度上呈现西低东高的状态;黄河流域地级市中绝大多数农林经济综合指数小于生态环境综合指数,说明黄河流域农林经济-生态环境耦合失调状况是由农林经济发展滞后引起的。建议:完善黄河流域生态环境保护与农林经济协调发展的顶层设计,优化经济结构、加强生态建设,构建黄河流域经济社会高质量发展远景目标;重视黄河流域农林经济-生态环境耦合协调的时空差异,设计差异化协调路径,建立跨地域互动合作和协同治理机制;合理开发和利用黄河流域自然资源,优化农林产业结构,因地制宜激发农林经济发展潜能。

In order to provide reference and suggestions for the policy formulation of coordinated development of agriculture and forestry econo⁃my and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin,the mechanism and interaction between ecological protection and agriculture⁃forest⁃ry economic development in the Yellow River Basin were explored.Based on the data of agricultural⁃forestry economy and ecological environ⁃ment of 34 prefecture⁃level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2018,the comprehensive index of agricultural⁃forestry economy and the comprehensive index of ecological environment were calculated.The coupling coordination model was used to calculate the coupling degree of agricultural⁃forestry economy and ecological environment based on the coordination degree between agriculture⁃forestry economy and ecolog⁃ical environment,the coupling coordination relationship between agriculture⁃forestry economy development and ecological environment protec⁃tion in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed.The results show that at present,the interaction between agricultural⁃forestry economic develop⁃ment and eco⁃environmental protection in most areas of the Yellow River Basin is strong,the mutual promotion effect is good and the overall development trend of coupling and coordination between the two is good;The coupling coordination of agriculture,forestry,economy and eco⁃logical environment in the Yellow River Basin is spatially and temporally different,showing a stable trend and slight change in the time di⁃mension,and a state of low in the west and high in the east in the spatial dimension;Most of the comprehensive index of agriculture⁃forestry economy in prefecture⁃level cities of the Yellow River Basin is less than that of ecological environment,which indicates that the coupling im⁃balance of agriculture⁃forestry economy and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin is caused by the lag of agriculture⁃forestry econ⁃omy development.It suggestions to improve the top⁃level design of the coordinated development of eco⁃environmental protection and agricul⁃ture⁃forestry economy in the Yellow River Basin,optimize the economic structure,strengthen ecological construction,and build the long⁃term goal of high⁃quality economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin;We should pay attention to the spatial and temporal differ⁃ences of the coupling coordination between agriculture⁃forestry economy and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin,design the dif⁃ferentiated coordination path,and establish the cross regional interactive cooperation and collaborative governance mechanism;We should ra⁃tionally develop and utilize the natural resources in the Yellow River Basin,optimize the structure of agriculture⁃forestry industry,adjust measures to local conditions,and stimulate the development potential of agriculture⁃forestry economy.