HEC⁃HMS模型在岢岚流域的应用研究

Research and Application of HEC⁃HMS Model in Kelan Basin

针对岢岚流域1967—2007年的场次洪水情况,在基于DEM构建数字模型的基础上,采用HEC⁃HMS模型,选取SCS⁃CN值法、SCS单位线法、指数衰退法以及马斯京根法分别对流域产流、坡面汇流、基流以及河道汇流进行计算,进而构建洪水预报模型,并对模型的适用性进行研究。结果表明:率定期与验证期各场次洪水的洪峰流量、峰现时间以及径流深均达到合格水平,确定性系数DC均值分别为0.640、0.612,合格率均为71.4%,均达到乙级预报精度,且模型对小型洪水的模拟精度较大中型洪水更高;HEC⁃HMS模型在岢岚流域的适用性良好,能为岢岚流域未来洪水预报提供新的依据。

According to the session flood situation of Kelan Basin from 1967 to 2007,on the basis of the model built based on DEM model,HEC⁃HMS model,SCS⁃CN method,SCS unit line method,exponential recession method and Muskingum method were used to calculate the runoff,slope confluence,base flow and channel confluence of the basin respectively,the flood forecasting model of the basin was construc⁃ted,and the applicability of the model was studied and applied.The simulation results show that in the periodic and verification periods the flood peak discharge,flood peak time and runoff depth of each flood are qualified and the mean coefficient of certainty DC are 0.640 and 0.612 respectively.The qualified rate was is both 71.4%and the prediction accuracy is both achieved class B precision.The simulation accu⁃racy of the model for small floods is higher than that for large and medium⁃sized floods.This paper shows that the HEC⁃HMS model has a good applicability in Kelan Basin and can provide a new basis for the future flood prediction in Kelan Basin.