“一带一路”共建国家纸品贸易网络结构演变及影响因素研究

The Structure Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Paper Products Trade Network in the"Belt and Road"Countries

明确“一带一路”共建国家纸品贸易的发展格局、发展条件及发展现状,对进一步优化“一带一路”共建国家纸品贸易具有十分重要的作用。根据2000−2020年“一带一路”倡议的65个初始共建国家的纸品贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法,分析其贸易网络结构特征和演化趋势,并利用二次指派程序探究其空间关联的驱动因素。研究结果表明,“一带一路”共建国家纸品贸易网络具有十分明显的空间关联关系、溢出效应和核心-边缘特征,贸易规模扩张明显,网络稳定性逐渐增强。中国在“一带一路”共建国家纸品贸易网络中的地位越来越重要,而俄罗斯、匈牙利、斯洛伐克等国家的核心度呈下降趋势。各国间的文化差距、地理距离、森林资源禀赋差距负向影响纸品贸易网络的形成,而各国间的自由贸易协定正向影响贸易网络的形成。

Clarifying the development pattern,conditions and status of the paper products trade in the"Belt and Road"countries will play a very important role in further optimizing the paper product trade.Based on the paper trade data of the initial 65 member countries of the"Belt and Road"from 2000 to 2020,this paper uses social network analysis methods to analyze the structure characteristics and evolutionary trends,and uses the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)to explore its driving factors.The research results show that the paper products trade network shows obvious spatial correlations,spillover effects and coreperipheral characteristics.The scale of trade has expanded significantly,and the stability of the network has gradually increased.China's position in the network is becoming more and more important,while the centeredness of Russia,Hungary,Slovakia and other countries is declining.The cultural distance,geographic distance,and forest resource endowment distance among the"Belt and Road"countries negatively affect the formation of the paper products trade network,while the FTA network positively affects the formation of trade ties.