多种土地利用情景下汾河流域径流响应

Runoff Response of Fenhe River Basin under Multiple Land-use Scenarios

为研究汾河流域未来土地利用变化及其对流域径流过程产生的影响,利用FLUS模型模拟2040年在自然发展、耕地保护情景下的土地利用情况,载入SWAT模型模拟多种土地利用情景下的径流过程并进行对比。结果表明:耕地、林地、草地是汾河流域主要用地类型,其变化的主要特征是耕地减少、建设用地增加;汾河流域土地利用变化引起流域年、季径流量增大,建设用地相对于耕地会增大径流量;夏季、秋季径流量的增长量大于春季、冬季,说明建设用地对径流量的增大作用在汛期更加明显。

In order to study future land use changes in Fenhe River Basin and its impact on runoff processes of basin,the FLUS model is used to simulate the land use in 2040 under the natural development scenario and the cropland conservation scenario,then the SWAT model is loaded into to simulate the runoff process under various land-use scenarios,and finally,the results of runoff simulation are compared.The results show that,(a)the cultivated land,woodland and grassland are the main land-use types in Fenhe River Basin,and the main characteristics of their changes are the decrease of cultivated land and the increase of construction land;(b)the land use changes in Fenhe River Basin cause annual and seasonal runoff to increase,and the construction land plays a role in increasing runoff compared to cultivated land;and(c)the increase in runoff is greater in summer and autumn than in spring and winter,indicating that the effect of construction land on the increase of runoff is more obvious in the flood season.