基于主成分分析算法的综合考虑多因素输电线路灾害风险评估研究

Research on Transmission Line Disaster Risk Assessment Considering Multiple Factors Based on Principal Component Analysis Algorithm

目前虽然国内外对输电线路运行自然灾害风险进行了研究,但均是对单一风险源进行评估,缺乏综合考虑多个风险源,更精确地对线路运行风险综合评价。因此,选取线路雷击次数、覆冰厚度、风速、山火次数、盐密、灰密6个指标因子,采用主成分分析算法,对30个研究样本进行分析,通过计算前3个主成分累积贡献率为98.2669,并基于前3个主成分特征向量建立输电线路自然灾害综合风险评估计算模型,研究得出高、中、低风险线路分别占26.7%、23.3%、50%。

At present,although domestic and foreign researches on the natural disaster risk of transmission line operation are conducted,they all assess a single source of risk,and there is a lack of comprehensive consideration of multiple risk sources and a more accurate comprehensive evaluation of the risk of line operation.Therefore,six indicator factors of the number of lightning strikes,ice thickness,wind speed,number of hill fires,salt density,and gray density are selected,and the principal component analysis algorithm is used to analyze 30 research samples.Through calculation,the cumulative contribution rate of the first 3 principal components is 98.2669.Based on the first three principal component eigenvectors,a comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment calculation model for transmission lines is established.The study shows that high,medium,and low risk lines account for 26.7%,23.3%and 50%,respectively.