农业服务外包对农户信贷投入的替代效应研究

Research on the Substitution Effect of Agricultural Service Outsourcing on Agricultural Loans

从要素市场替代视角分析农户信贷困境的解决思路,采用Probit和Tobit模型验证分析农业服务外包与农户农业信贷之间的互动替代可能性,研究发现,农业服务外包会显著减少农户对非正规信贷的依赖,农业服务外包水平提高,农户进行农业非正规信贷投入的概率降低,资金投入数量减少;异质性分析显示,农业服务外包对农业信贷投入的替代效应会随农户种植规模扩大而强化,但在丘陵山区会被弱化;机制分析表明,农业服务外包通过减少农户生产性投资,进而减少其信贷投入。工具变量法验证了上述结论。建议充分发挥农业服务经营投资对农户信贷投入的替代效应,帮助小农户绕过资金信贷约束,实现与现代农业的有机衔接;同时重视制定面向农业生产性服务经营主体的信贷支持政策。

From the perspective of substitution between factor markets,this study analyzes a solution to the difficult credit situation faced by farmers.The possibility of interactions and substitution between agricultural service outsourcing and agricultural loans is examined using Probit and Tobit models.The analysis reveals that agricultural services outsourcing significantly reduces farmers’reliance on informal credit,as well as the amount of capital investment needed.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the substitution effect of agricultural services outsourcing on agricultural loans intensifies at larger farmer planting scales,but weakens in hilly and mountainous areas.Mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural services outsourcing reduces farmer loans by reducing their production investment.The study suggests that to help small farmers avoid credit constraints,the substitution effect of investment in agricultural service operations on agricultural loans should be deployed fully.At the same time,there should be a focus on formulating credit support policies for operators of agricultural production services.