基于协整分析的农业机械化、城乡经济发展与水稻播种面积关系研究——以江西省为例

Study on relations between agricultural mechanization,urban and rural economic development and rice sowing area based on co-integration analysis:Empirical data from Jiangxi Province

探究水稻播种面积与农业机械化和城乡收入差距间的长期均衡关系,为稳定江西省水稻播种面积和保证江西省粮食产量提供对策。通过《江西省统计年鉴》、《中国农村统计年鉴》统计江西省1979—2018年水稻播种面积、农业机械总动力和城乡收入差距的数据构建向量误差修正模型,进一步进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。研究发现,水稻播种面积、农业机械化、城乡收入差距间存在长期均衡关系,在长期关系中农业机械化对水稻播种面积是正向影响,农业机械化每提高1%,水稻播种面积提高0.003%;城乡收入比是负向影响,城乡收入比每增加1%,水稻播种面积减少0.755%。通过完善农业生产中全产业链农业机械补贴政策和加强农业机械操作的培训,进一步扩大江西省农业机械化水平;通过增加财政支农投入提高农村基础建设,因地制宜地发展有特色、有亮点的农村企业和培育“土”专家等方式补齐农村发展的短板,有效降低城乡收入差距。

To explore the long-term equilibrium relationship between rice sowing area,agricultural mechanization,and urban and rural income gap,as well as to provide counter measures for stabilizing rice sowing area and ensuring grain production in Jiangxi Province,a vector error correction model was constructed.Data on rice sowing area,total power of agricultural machinery,and urban and rural income gap in Jiangxi Province from 1979-2018 was analysed using the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangxi Province as well as the China Rural Statistical Yearbook.Additionally,further impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were conducted.It was found that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between rice sowing areas,agricultural mechanization,and urban and rural income gap.Increase in agricultural mechanization had a positive effect on rice sowing area,whereby for every 1%increase in agricultural mechanization,rice sowing area increased by 0.003%.However,incease in urban and rural income ratio had a negative effect,such that for every 1%increase in urban and rural income ratio,rice sowing area decreased by 0.755%.It was found that the level of agricultural mechanization in Jiangxi Province could befurther expanded by improving the agricultural machinery subsidization policy through out the entire industrial chain of agricultural production and improving training on agricultural machinery operation.The rural infrastructure can be improved by increasing the financial investment in supporting agriculture,developing rural enterprises with characteristics and highlights,and cultivating“native”experts in accordance with local conditions.This will help to make up for the shortcomings of rural development so as to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas effectively.