多机组核电厂动态人因可靠性分析:现状与展望

Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis of Multi-unit Nuclear Power Plants:Current Status and Prospects

发展核电对于优化我国能源结构、缓解环境污染和保证能源安全具有重要意义。核电发展是大势所趋,但安全是其重要前提。人因可靠性分析(HRA)作为核电厂风险评估的重要组成部分,是保障核电厂安全运行的重要技术手段。福岛事故后,多机组核电厂HRA成为近年来的研究热点。然而,现行的HRA方法并未考虑多机组运行特征对人因可靠性的影响、且动态性不足,如果直接将其应用于多机组核电厂人因可靠性研究,则将无法保证分析结果的准确性。本文详细阐述了开展多机组核电厂动态HRA研究的必要性和重要性,从HRA方法研究、多机组人因可靠性研究,以及动态HRA研究等三个方面对多机组动态人因可靠性分析的研究现状进行了评述,指出了当前研究所存在的缺陷与不足,并对未来的研究工作进行了展望。

The development of nuclear power is of great significance for optimizing China’s energy structure,alleviating environmental pollution and ensuring energy security.The development of nuclear power is the general trend,but safety is an important prerequisite.Human Reliability Analysis(HRA),as an important part of the risk assessment of nuclear power plants(NPPs),is an important technical means to ensure the safe operation of NPPs.The occurrence of the Fukushima accident makes HRA of multi-unit NPPs a research hotspot in recent years.However,the existing HRA methods do not consider the impact of operational characteristics of multi-unit NPPs on human reliability and lacks dynamics.If it is directly applied to multi-unit NPPs HRA,the accuracy of the analysis results will not be guaranteed.This paper elaborates on the necessity and importance of carrying out the research of dynamic HRA of multi-unit NPPs.The current status of dynamic HRA of multi-unit NPPs is analyzed from the three aspects of HRA methods,HRA of multi-unit NPPs,and dynamic HRA.The defects and shortcomings of the current research are figure out,and the future research work is prospected in this paper.