农业技术进步对乡村振兴的影响研究:基于自组织理论

The Impact of Agricultural Technology Progress on Rural Revitalization:Based on the Theory of Self-organization

本文构建农业技术进步对乡村振兴影响的自组织理论框架,运用空间杜宾模型和门槛回归模型实证地探讨农业技术进步对乡村振兴的影响机理。研究表明:①乡村振兴是个开放系统。不同于社会主义新农村建设,农业技术进步对乡村振兴的支撑具有高度选择性和不均衡性且呈现出显著的空间溢出效应。②与东中部省份相反,西部省份的农业技术进步溢出对乡村振兴具有正U形支撑作用。且中部省份的农业技术进步溢出对乡村振兴的倒U形支撑强于东部省市。③乡村振兴是个非线性系统。农业技术进步对中国及中西部省份的乡村振兴具有非线性影响。④乡村振兴系统具有涨落、非均衡特征。随着产业结构的升级,农业技术进步对乡村振兴的非线性支撑增强。

This paper constructs a self-organization theoretical framework for the impact of agricultural technology progress on rural revitalization,and uses spatial durbin model and threshold regression model to empirically explore the impact mechanism of agricultural technology progress on rural revitalization.The research shows that:①Rural revitalization is an open system.Different from the new rural construction,the support of agricultural technological progress to rural revitalization is highly selective and unbalanced,and presents a significant spatial spillover effect.②Contrary to the eastern and central provinces and cities,the spillover of agricultural technological progress in western provinces and cities has a positive U-shaped supporting effect on rural revitalization.Moreover,the inverted U-shaped support for rural revitalization by the overflow of agricultural technology in the central provinces and cities is stronger than that of the eastern provinces and cities.③Rural revitalization is a non-linear system.The advancement of agricultural technology has a non-linear impact on rural revitalization in the central and western provinces and cities.④The rural revitalization system has fluctuating and unbalanced characteristics.With the upgrading of the industrial structure,the non-linear support of agricultural technological progress to rural revitalization has increased.