江西省种粮大户应对气象灾害适应性行为经济绩效研究——基于DEA-Tobit模型

Economic Performance of Large Grain Farmers’Adaptive Behaviors to Meteorological Disasters in Jiangxi Province:Based on DEA-Tobit Model

【目的】气象灾害频发给农业生产带来了较大损失,有效的适应性行为可以减少经济损失。农户作为生产的主体和气象灾害的直接承受者,其适应性行为可以有效降低气象灾害的负面影响,提高自身经济绩效。充分了解农户气象灾害适应性行为经济绩效及其影响因素显得尤为重要。【方法】研究基于江西省226户种粮大户调查数据,采用DEA-Tobit模型,对农户应对气象灾害适应性行为经济绩效及影响因素进行了研究。【结果】农户的综合效率和规模效率值较低,但纯技术效率值较高,农户的管理水平和种植规模是影响绩效的主要原因。【结论】农户灾害前主动适应性行为对经济绩效的影响大于被动适应性行为,应鼓励农户做好灾害前的预防工作。适应性行为中,灾害前参与水利基础设施的修建或维护、灾害后增加灌溉或排涝次数以及改种其他经济作物对农户经济绩效的影响是正向的,而灾害发生前采用保护性耕作技术,灾害后加强病虫害检查对农户经济绩效的影响为负向。

[Objective]Frequent meteorological disasters have brought great losses to agricultural production,and effective adaptive behaviors can reduce the economic losses.Farmers are the main body of agricultural production and the direct bearer of meteorological disasters,and so their adaptive behaviors can effectively reduce the negative impacts of meteorological disasters and improve their economic performance.This makes it particularly important to fully understand the economic performance of farmers’adaptive behaviors to meteorological disasters and the influencing factors.[Method]Based on the survey data of 226 large grain farmers in Jiangxi Province,this paper uses DEA-TOBIT Model to study the economic performance and influencing factors of farmers’adaptive behaviors to meteorological disasters.[Result]The results show that the comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency of farmers are low,but their pure technical efficiency is high.The management level and planting scale of farmers are the main reasons affecting their performance.[Conclusion]Farmers’active adaptive behaviors before disasters have a greater impact on their economic performance than that of their passive adaptive behaviors.Farmers should be encouraged to do a good job in the disaster prevention.Of their adaptive behaviors,the impacts of their participating in the construction or maintenance of the water infrastructure before disasters,as well as increasing the irrigation or drainage times after disasters and switching to other economic crops on farmers’economic performance are positive,while the impact of adopting conservation tillage technology before disasters as well as strengthening pest inspection after disasters on farmers’economic performance is negative.