基于残差灰色马尔科夫模型的危险天气影响范围预测

Prediction of Dangerous Weather Influence Range Based on Residual Grey Markov Model

在通航飞行过程中可能遇到的情况里,最为普遍可能遭遇的就是降雨天气,降雨导致的危险天气对于飞行安全也是一个需要重视的隐患。为了保障通用航空器顺利安全地抵达目的地,对于危险天气的预测也是需要重视的环节。文章通过对一小时内降雨范围的边界最大最小值处理,借助残差灰色马尔科夫预测模型,通过少量数据,对危险天气范围进行预测。

among the possible situations in the process of navigation flight,the most common is the rainy weather.The dangerous weather caused by rainfall is also a hidden danger that needs to be paid attention to for flight safety.In order to ensure the smooth and safe arrival of general-purpose aircraft at the destination,the prediction of dangerous weather also needs to be paid attention to.In this paper,the boundary maximum and minimum value of rainfall range within one hour is processed,and the dangerous weather range is predicted with the help of residual Grey Markov prediction model and a small amount of data.