基于灰色系统理论的贵阳市城市用水总量预测

Prediction of total urban water consumption in Guiyang based on grey system theory

城市用水总量预测是水资源规划与管理的前提和基础,预测结果直接影响给水系统调度决策的可靠性和实用性及城市水资源的可持续利用和社会经济的可持续发展。以2002—2019年各年间估算的城市用水总量(计算需水量)与供水总量(实际供水量)为基础研究数据,建立了两个灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,选择精度较高的模型响应式对贵阳市未来5 a的城市用水总量进行了预测,以期为水资源规划与管理、水系统调度决策等工作服务。以实际供水量为原始数据建立的预测模型,经验证,模型精度检验为合格级,且模型响应式精度更高;对2002—2019年模型响应式的结果进行验证和分析,预测模型结果可靠、预测数据的增长趋势和相符性符合控制要求。预测表明贵阳市2022年城市用水总量约为39514.32万m^(3),并将逐步增加到2025年的约43096.08万m^(3),年平均增长率约为2.93%。

Predicting the total urban water consumption is the premise and basis of water resources planning and management.The predicting results directly affect the reliability and practicability of water supply system dispatching decision-making,the sustainable utilization of urban water resources and the sustainable development of social economy.Based on the estimated total urban water consumption(calculated water demand)and total water supply(actual water supply)from 2002 to 2019,this paper establishes two grey GM(1,1)prediction models,selects the model response with high precision to predict the total urban water consumption in Guiyang in the next five years,so as to serve such purposes as water resources planning and management,water system dispatching decision-making.The prediction model based on the actual water supply as the original data is verified,the accuracy of the model is qualified,and the accuracy of the model response is higher,and the results of the model response from 2002 to 2019 are verified and analyzed.The results of the prediction model are reliable,and the growth trend and consistency of the prediction data meet the control requirements.The prediction shows that the total urban water consumption in Guiyang will be about 395.1432 million m^(3) in 2022,and will gradually increase to about 430.9608 million m^(3) in 2025,with an average annual growth rate of about 2.93%.