有限注意力下一类满意启发式决策的建模与理性分析

Modeling and Rationality Analysis on the Satisficing Heuristic Decision under Limited Attention

在决策者有限注意力下,现实生活中决策人的选择行为往往表现出一类“满意启发式”特征。基于个体决策者偏好的不完备性,借助方案集系列、考虑集等相关概念探讨了满意启发式决策规则的建模;论证了方案集系列可观与部分可观条件下一类满意决策函数的存在性,以及基于相关理性条件的理性特征,并结合顾客购买行为案例的仿真实验对所建立的满意决策模型进行了验证。仿真结果表明决策者在时间紧逼和信息不完整的情形下可以通过排除部分方案的方式保证以最大概率选到满意方案。研究结果可为现实生活中决策人在时间紧迫、信息缺失等情形下的选择提供一定的理论参考与指导,也可作为一类满意决策研究的理论基础。

A decision maker under limited attention in the real world behaves according to the so-called satisfying heuristic proposed by Herbert Simon.We propose a descriptive model of satisfying heuristic in which the decision maker’s preferences are incomplete by utilizing the concepts of menu sequences and consideration sets and so on.The existence and rationality of satisfying decisions under observable menu sequences and partially observable menu sequences are discussed respectively combined with some rationality conditions.Further,some simulation experiments about an application case of consumer shopping are conducted to illustrate our model.The simulation results show that in the case of time constraint and incomplete information,the consumer can ensure that the satisfactory alternative can be selected with the maximum probability by excluding parts of the alternatives.The results can provide the decision maker with theoretical reference values in case of time pressure,limited information,etc.It can also be the theoretical foundation for the study on the satisfying decision.