“机器换人”背景下工人失业担忧研究——基于广东省制造业“企业-职工”匹配调查数据

Workers' Fear of Unemployment under the Background of“Machines Replacing Humans”:Evidence from Matched“Employer-Employee”Survey Data for Guangdong's Manufacturing Industry

“机器换人”已经成为我国制造业发展的重要趋势,其结果是工人将面临技术性失业风险。现有研究缺乏从工人角度对技术性失业的探讨,本文试图从社会心理层面分析机器换人背景下工人的失业担忧。利用2018年调查获得的广东省“企业-职工”匹配数据,本文发现有近30%的工人担心会发生技术性失业,且不同行业工人无明显差别。以客观岗位替代性为自变量的分析表明,岗位易替代工人的技术性失业担忧水平显著高于岗位难替代工人,且他们更容易受主观工作替代认知的影响,技术性失业担忧水平上升。人力资本变量的分析表明,受教育年限越短,工人产生技术性失业担忧的可能性越大;工人的技术性失业担忧随着目前企业工龄的增长呈N形曲线趋势。基于上述结论,本文提出了相应的政策干预措施。

“Machines replacing humans”has become an important tendency of the Chinese manufacturing industry, which has increased workers’ risk of technological unemployment. However, there is a lack of study on technological unemployment from the viewpoint of workers. This article attempts to explore workers’ fear of unemployment from a social psychological perspective. Based on an employer-employee survey data for Guangdong province in 2018, the article finds that about 30% of workers fear of being replaced by automation technologies, and there is no remarkable difference among workers from different sub-industries. Using the substitutability of work as a key independent variable,the study shows the regression result that workers whose work can be easily substituted by automated equipment are more afraid of technological unemployment, and they are more likely to be impacted by their perceptions of work substitution, which tend to amplify their fear. Regarding human capital, workers who received fewer years of education are more likely to fear technological unemployment. Additionally, workers’ fear of unemployment presents as an N curve as their seniority grows. In conclusion, this article suggests intervention strategies based on the above analysis.