北京劳动力供需变动趋势研究:2021-2035

Research on the Changing Trend of Labor Supply and Demand in Beijing:2021-2035

在减量发展背景下,科学预测北京2021—2035年劳动力供需趋势对实现北京“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标具有重要意义。研究发现,若保持当前北京户籍人口每年净迁入水平与外来人口规模,即在基准预测方案下,即使在劳动参与率逐步提升、劳动力素质逐步提升和就业需求弹性持续下降的假定下,劳动力供给仍将持续下降。在提高户籍净迁入与外来人口规模的高方案下,劳动力供给有所提升,但仍然不能完全满足需求。同时,无论是基准方案还是高方案,2021—2035年,25—44岁“黄金”年龄组劳动力规模都将持续下降,而45—64岁组大龄劳动力规模都将大幅上升,劳动力市场的结构性矛盾将加剧。在此基础上,探索劳动力供需平衡实现路径,发现大幅提高45—64岁组劳动参与率是最为有效的提升劳动力供给的途径,同时提升劳动生产率是减少劳动力需求的有效途径。最后,分别从供给和需求两端提出政策建议:供给方面,推动大龄劳动年龄人口与女性人口就业,提高劳动参与率,增加劳动力供给规模,同时,增加教育投入与职业培训,提升劳动力质量,全面提升劳动力供给效率;需求方面,促进技术进步与经济增长方式转变,进而降低就业弹性,全面提高劳动生产率,减少劳动力需求,促进劳动力供需平衡。

In the context of volume reduction development,scientific prediction of the trend of labor supply and demand in Beijing from 2021 to 2035 is of great significance to the realization of Beijing’s“14th Five-Year Plan”and the 2035 Long-term Goal.The study found that if the current annual net immigration volume of the Beijing registered population and the scale of the floating population are maintained,that is,under the baseline forecasting scheme,even under the assumption that the labor participation rate is gradually increasing,the quality of the labor force is gradually improved,and the elasticity of employment demand continues to decrease,the labor supply will continue to decline.Under the high plan to increase the net household registered migrants and the scale of the floating population,the labor supply has increased,but the demand is still not fully satisfied.At the same time,regardless of whether it is the benchmark plan or the high plan,from 2021-2035,the labor force of the 25-44-year-old“golden”age group will be still decline,while the 45-64-year-old labor force will increase significantly.Structure contradictions of the labor market will intensify.On this basis,this article explores the path to achieve the balance of labor supply and demand,and finds that increasing the labor participation rate of the 45-64 age group is the most effective way to increase labor supply,while increasing labor productivity is an effective way to reduce labor demand.Finally,this article puts forward policy recommendations from both the supply and demand sides.In terms of supply,we need to promote the labor participation rate of both the older working-age population and female population,to boost the labor supply scale;at the same time,we need to invest more in education and vocational training for improving labor quality and comprehensively enhancing labor supply efficiency.In terms of demand,we need to stimulate technological progress and the transformation of economic growth patterns to reduce employment elasticity,shorten labor demand,and finally,promote the balance of labor supply and demand.