情绪博弈下舆情主体情绪与决策行为互动模型研究

Research on the Interaction Model of Public Opinion Subject Emotion and Decision-making Behavior under Emotional Game

[目的/意义]网络舆情事件往往会激发公众情绪,网络情绪也会影响舆情主体的行为决策,而舆情主体的行为决策会在一定程度上引导舆情的走向。因此,研究舆情主体的情绪与行为之间相互作用机制具有重要价值。[方法/过程]本研究以个体的有限理性为前提,通过舆情主体间话语权争夺行为带来的情绪收益,探讨情绪与行为的互动关系。利用情绪价值函数和概率特征函数,构建测量舆情主体情绪值的行为特征函数。通过行为特征函数进行情绪测量,构建关于网民和自媒体营销号的改进型最后通牒情绪博弈模型,进而研究考虑情绪因素的舆情事件主体行为决策机制,讨论博弈策略的均衡性和话语权阈值。最后以“广州教师涉嫌体罚学生”事件为例,验证该情绪博弈模型的有效性。[结果/结论]针对情绪博弈过程的不同动机诉求、不同行为群体,给出舆情事件应对策略,进行具有可操作性和切实有效的过程干预。

[Purpose/significance]Network public opinion events often stimulate public sentiment,and network sentiment will also affect the behavior decision-making of public opinion subjects,and the behavior decision-making of public opinion subjects will guide the trend of public opinion to a certain extent.Therefore,it is of great value to study the interaction mechanism between emotion and behavior of public opinion subjects.[Method/process]On the premise of individual bounded rationality,this study discusses the interactive relationship between emotion and behavior through the emotional benefits brought by the competition for discourse power among public opinion subjects.Using emotional value function and probability characteristic function,this paper constructs a behavior characteristic function to measure the emotional value of public opinion subjects.Through the emotion measurement of behavior characteristic function,an improved ultimatum emotion game model about Internet users and media marketing numbers is constructed.The behavior decision-making mechanism of public opinion events considering emotional factors is studied,and the balance of game strategy and the threshold of discourse power are discussed.Taking"Guangzhou teachers suspected of corporal punishment of students"as an example,this paper verifies the rationality of the emotional game model.[Result/conclusion]According to different motivational demands and different behavior groups in the process of emotional game,this paper gives the coping strategies of public opinion events,and carries out operable and effective process intervention.