中国网络人口区域分布的影响因素分析——基于面板向量自回归模型

Influence Factors of the Regional Distribution of the Internet Population in China——A Panel Vector Autoregression Analysis

网络人口快速增长的同时,地区之间网络人口的发展差距也逐渐加大.利用描述性统计分析和面板聚类分析方法对2001-2016年中国31个省份的网络人口分布特征进行分析,建立面板向量自回归模型实证检验网络人口与各影响因素之间的相互作用.结果表明,中国的网络人口数量从东到西呈递减趋势;31个省可以分为4类.对外开放程度和经济因子是网络人口分布的重要影响因素;以高学历占比为衡量指标的教育发展水平,对网络人口分布起着门槛作用;当互联网普及率大于大专以上学历人口占比时,教育发展水平对网络人口发展产生负面影响,并且随着时间的推移,这种影响将越来越强;网络人口与各影响因素之间存在相互作用.这些发现对网络人口和数字经济的发展具有深远的影响.

The rapid growth of the internet population has also brought about a development gap between regions.Descriptive analysis and panel clustering methods were used to analyze the impact of a variety of socio-economic influence factors on the internet population in China’s 31 provinces from 2001 to 2016.Then,a panel vector autoregressive model was developed to empirically explain the interactions between the internet population and the various factors.The results showed that the internet population in China declined from east to west,and the 31provinces could be divided into four categories.The degree of openness to the outside world and economic factors were important predictors of the internet population’s distribution.The level of educational development measured by the proportion of higher education had a threshold effect on the distribution of the internet population.When the internet penetration rate was greater than the proportion of the population above the tertiary level,the level of educational development had a negative impact on the internet population,and this impact will become increasingly stronger over time.There were interactions between the internet population and all influence factors.The findings had profound implications for the development of the internet population and the digital economy.