基于波动特性的光伏电站出力时间序列建模方法研究

Research on Modeling Method of Photovoltaic Power Station Output Time Series Based on Fluctuation Characteristics

光伏电站将太阳能转化为电能,因此其电站出力受天气影响较大,不利于电网的安全运行。利用统计分析的方法对光伏发电的随机性进行统计分析,得到其不同天气状况下的出力特征,利用拟合的方法得到拟合曲线,根据统计方法得到拟合曲线的各项参数,出力自相关函数曲线对比表明,该出力时间序列建模方法与真实值较为接近。

Photovoltaic power plant converts solar energy into electric energy, so its power station output is greatly affected by weather, which is not conducive to the safe operation of the grid. The stochastic characteristics of photovoltaic power generation are analyzed by statistical method, and the output characteristics under different weather conditions are obtained. The fitting curve is obtained by fitting method. The parameters of the fitting curve are obtained according to statistical method. The comparison of the output self correlation function curve shows that the time series modeling method of the output is close to the real value.