长三角一体化促进产业结构优化升级了吗——基于DID模型的验证

Has the Integration of the Yangtze River Delta Promoted the Optimization and Upgrading of the Industrial Structure? Verification Based on DID Model

区域一体化已经成为我国经济新常态下缩小贫富差距、推动产业结构升级、实现区域协同发展的重要途径。本文在区域一体化影响产业结构升级的逻辑框架下,利用2000—2018年长三角41个城市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法实证检验了长三角一体化对产业结构优化升级的净效应。研究发现:长三角一体化虽然促进了产业结构合理化,但阻碍了产业结构高级化,未能发挥出对产业结构的优化作用;随着长三角一体化程度的推进,其对产业结构高级化的阻碍作用减弱,对产业结构合理化的促进作用逐渐增强;长三角一体化的产业结构优化效应存在显著差异,在安徽显现出“趋优演化”效应,而在江苏和浙江显现出“转型拖累”效应。因此,未来长三角一体化发展应消除市场分割,建立多层次的长效协调机制,推动长三角整体产业结构优化升级。

Regional integration has become an important path to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor,promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,and achieve regional coordinated development under the new normal of China’s economy.Under the logical framework that regional integration affects the upgrading of industrial structure,the paper uses the panel data of41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018 to empirically test the net effect of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by using the multi-period double-difference method.The research found that:Although the integration of the Yangtze River Delta promotes the rationalization of the industrial structure,it hinders the advanced industrial structure and fails to play a role in optimizing the industrial structure;With the advancement of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta,the hindering effect on the advanced industrial structure is weakened,and the promoting effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure is gradually strengthened;There is significant heterogeneity in the industrial structure optimization effect of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta,showing the effect of “evolution towards excellence ” in Anhui and the effect of“transition drag”in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.Therefore,the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta in the future should eliminate market segmentation,establish a multi-level long-term coordination mechanism,and promote the optimization and upgrading of the overall industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta.