管理者过度自信、股价崩盘风险与资本结构动态调整——基于动态面板数据的中介效应分析

Managerial overconfidence,stock price crash risk and the dynamic adjustments of capital structure: a mediating effect analysis based on dynamic panel data

以中国A股上市公司为样本,引入中介变量——股价崩盘风险,检验管理者过度自信对资本结构动态调整的作用机制。研究发现,管理者过度自信会提高股价崩盘风险,从而加快资本结构调整速度,其中股价崩盘风险发挥了部分中介作用。区分负债水平和产权性质后的进一步研究表明负债水平不同和产权性质不同的企业之间存在显著差异,在过度负债企业和非国有企业中这一作用机制更显著。

This paper introduces the intermediate variable of stock price crash risk and tests the mechanism of managers ’overconfidence on the dynamic adjustment of capital structure by analyzing the samples of China’s A-share listed companies.The results show that the overconfidence of managers will increase the stock price crash risk and then accelerate the capital structure adjustment,in which the stock price crash risk plays a part of the intermediary role. Further study shows that there are significant differences among enterprises with different debt level or different property nature and this mechanism is more significant in over-indebted enterprises and private enterprises.