煤电在碳中和目标实现中的机遇与挑战

Opportunities and challenges of coal power industry in the achievement of carbon neutrality goal

在碳中和目标愿景下,中国煤电行业遇到了史无前例的发展压力,亟待探寻既能满足能源系统需求又能兼顾碳减排政策的发展路径。围绕化石能源在全球能源消费中的地位、煤炭在中国化石能源中的地位和煤电在中国电力行业中的地位三个方面阐述了中国煤电在碳中和目标实现中所面临的机遇;从中国煤电清洁低碳化、深调灵活化,功能多元化和智慧能源化四个方面梳理了中国煤电在碳中和目标实现中所面临的挑战。主要结果表明:(1)化石能源在全球能源消费中占比高达80%以上,许多发达国家也是如此,化石能源均是主体能源。中国2030、2050年煤炭消费在一次能源消费中占比预测分别为45%和不超过24%,在单一种类的能源中占比最高,在较长时期内煤炭仍是中国能源安全和稳定供应的“压舱石”。中国煤电在电力保供中的地位短期内难以改变,到2060年碳中和时可能仍需要保留5亿kW左右煤电装机量,以确保能源安全。(2)煤电机组实现清洁低碳化是中国实现碳中和面临的首要挑战,需要逐步示范和推广煤电机组的低碳—零碳—负碳技术,主要体现在:I)50.5%的亚临界及以下煤电机组的节能降耗升级改造、落后机组的淘汰关停,实现煤电机组的低碳减排;II)最先进的煤电机组掺烧30%的生物质燃料可实现单位供电量与燃气电厂一样的碳排放量,直至生物质燃料的全部替换,实现煤电机组的零碳排放;III)生物质能-碳捕集与封存(BECCS)技术的示范应用,实现煤电机组的负碳排放。以上途径可助力构建具有中国特色的以新能源为主体的新型电力系统,支撑能源绿色低碳高质量发展,保障国家能源安全并顺利实现碳中和。

Under the goal of carbon neutrality,Chinese coal power industry has encountered unprecedented development pressure,It is urgent to explore a development path that can not only meet the needs of the energy system but also take into account carbon emission reduction policies.This paper first expounded the opportunities of Chinese coal power industry to achieve carbon neutrality goal from three aspects:the position of fossil energy in global energy consumption,the position of coal in Chinese fossil energy,and the position of coal power in Chinese power industry.Then it sorted out the challenges faced by Chinese coal power industry in achieving the carbon neutrality goal from four aspects:clean and low carbonization,in-depth adjustment and flexibility,functional diversification and intelligent energy.The main results show that:1)Fossil energy accounts for more than 80%of global energy consumption,as is the case in many developed countries,which is still the main energy source.It is predicted that Chinese coal consumption in 2030 and 2050 will account for 45%and no more than 24%of primary energy consumption,respectively,accounting for the highest proportion of a single type of energy.Coal will remain the ballast stone for Chinese energy security and stable supply in a long period of time.It is difficult to change the status of Chinese coal power in the power supply guarantee in the short term.By 2060,it may still need to retain about 500 million kW of coal power installed capacity to ensure energy security.2)The realization of clean and low carbonization in coal-fired power plants is the primary challenge for China to achieve carbon neutrality.It is necessary to gradually demonstrate and promote the low carbon-zero carbon-negative carbon technology of coal-fired power plants,which is mainly reflected in:I)50.5%of the subcritical and below coal-fired power units will achieve low-carbon emission reduction through energy-saving and consumption-reducing upgrades and the elimination and shutdown of outdated units.II)The most advanced coal-fired power units will be mixed with 30%biomass fuel,which can achieve the same carbon emission per unit of power supply as gas-fired power plants,and they will be achieve zero carbon emissions until all biomass fuels are replaced.III)Demonstration application of biomass-carbon capture and storage(BECCS)technology will achieve negative carbon emissions from coal power units.The above approaches can help build a new type of power system with Chinese characteristics with new energy as the main body,supporting the green,low-carbon and high-quality energy development,which ensure national energy security and achieve carbon neutrality successfully.