对“五眼联盟”介入香港的转型分析

Transitions in Five Eyes Alliance’s Interference in Hong Kong

[研究目的]“五眼联盟”从冷战时期就长期在香港活动,一般是收集情报和关注人权。但自2019年“香港修例风波”以来,“五眼联盟”对香港的介入发生转型。深入了解“五眼联盟”对香港的介入有助于加强我国在香港的国家安全。[研究方法]以“客体—主体—机制”为框架,就客体而言,“五眼联盟”从“维护香港独特性”转向“利用香港对抗中国”;就主体而言,“五眼联盟”的介入从“单独行为”转向了“集体行为”;就机制而言,“五眼联盟”从松散变得日益紧密。[研究结论]“五眼联盟”介入香港方式发生转型既有各成员想维护自己在港现实利益的原因,也有大国战略博弈背景下香港被“五眼联盟”赋予更加重要的地缘政治含义。未来,“五眼联盟”在议题上除了继续介入香港的民主、人权之外,还可能拓展到贸易、敏感技术以及香港参与的国际协议等实质性议题。在集体行动上可能出现选择性:在情报收集、敏感技术出口等议题上“五眼联盟”会紧密团结,在民主与人权上新西兰可能会继续在公开场合表现不同立场,而且“五眼联盟”可能会和“西方七国”形成联动。

[Research purpose]Since the Cold War Era the Five Eyes Alliance has been interfering in Hong Kong,generally collecting information and concerning human rights in Hong Kong.But from Hong Kong Extradition Law Revision Storm in 2019,there were some transitions in the Five Eyes Alliance’s interference in Hong Kong.A deep understanding of the Five Eyes Alliance’s interference will be helpful to improve China’s security in Hong Kong.[Research method]This research takes "object-subject-regime" as an analysis framework.As far as the object is concerned,there was a transition from "safeguarding Hong Kong’s uniqueness" to "confronting China with Hong Kong".As far as the subject is concerned,there was a transition from single acts to collective acts in interference in Hong Kong.As far as regimes are concerned,the Five Eyes has been transited from a loose structure to a close institution.[Research conclusion] These transitions are caused by two factors:one is that realistic interests are needed to be safeguarded in Hong Kong,the other is that Hong Kong is becoming geopolitically more important in the eyes of the Five Eyes Alliance in the game of powers.In the future,in addition to Hong Kong’s democracy and human rights,the Five Eyes Alliance will expand its interference to the following issues on trade,sensible technology,and Hong Kong’s international treaties.The Five Eyes members may be united together by intelligence surveillance,the export of sensible technology and so on,but in democracy and human rights,New Zealand may continue keeping an independent stance from the other four members.More importantly,the Five Eyes Alliance may interact with Group Seven in Hong Kong affairs.