新疆化肥市场动态变化趋势分析

Survey and Analysis of Fertilizer Market in Xinjiang

【目的】研究新疆地区化肥市场价格和销量的变化情况。【方法】对新疆11个地州市的12家农资(化肥)经销店在2012~2019年间进行长期定点动态跟踪调查,按月采集化肥价格及销售量信息,综合分析新疆化肥市场价格和销量的变化趋势。【结果】新疆化肥仍以传统的尿素、磷酸二铵为主,两者销售量在化肥中占比为74.61%~83.03%;硫酸钾的销量近几年呈现增加趋势,在化肥中的占比由2012年的1.48%提高到了2019年的7.54%。新疆化肥销售量具有明显的季节性,春耕期间的销量约占全年销量的50%左右,化肥销售价格季节性周期波动明显,2~7月农业用肥的旺季价格高,11~12月淡季价格低。【结论】每年11~12月购肥备肥,可有效降低化肥投入成本,单位面积化肥成本投入降低198元/hm^(2),节本9%以上;化肥销售价格与销售量没有显著的相关性,化肥价格调控不是减少化肥施用量的最优选择。

【Objective】We collected fertilizer price and sales information monthly,and comprehensively analyzed the variation of the price and sales volume for Xinjiang fertilizer market.【Method】From 2012 to 2019,we conducted a long-term dynamic survey at 12 agricultural material distribution stations(mainly chemical fertilizer)in 11 prefectures or cities in Xinjiang.【Result】urea and diammonium phosphate were still the main chemical fertilizers in Xinjiang province,which accounted for 74.61%to 83.03%of the chemical fertilizers;the sales of potassium sulfate increased obviously in recent years,and the proportion of the chemical fertilizers increased from 1.48%in 2012 to 7.54%in 2019.The sales volume of chemical fertilizer in Xinjiang varies with the seasonal demand of agricultural fertilizer,and the sales volume during spring cultivation accounts for about half of the annual sales volume.the seasonal change of the retail price of chemical fertilizers in Xinjiang was obvious,and the price of agricultural fertilizers was high in the peak season from February to July,and was low in the off season from January January to December.【Conclusion】it is suggested that farmers purchase fertilizer and prepare fertilizer from November to December every year,which can greatly save fertilizer expenditure.It is preliminarily estimated that 198 yuan/hm^(2) can be saved per unit area,with a saving range of more than 9%;There is no significant correlation between the retail price of chemical fertilizer and the sales volume,so the price control of chemical fertilizer should not be the optimal option to reduce the amount of fertilizer demand.