黄河流域碳排放脱钩效应及减排路径

Decoupling effects of carbon emissions and reduction path in the Yellow River Basin

在中国提出黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略以及2030年碳排放达峰的背景下,本文采用2006—2019年黄河流域地级市面板数据,基于Tapio脱钩弹性指数及追赶脱钩模型考察黄河流域碳排放特征及脱钩状态。结果表明:①黄河流域碳排放总量与人均量增速放缓,两项指标的年均增速分别由2006—2010年期间的6.5%和5.4%下降至2011—2019年期间的1.6%和0.8%,碳强度大幅下降,年平均降速为5.1%;②黄河流域91.2%的城市实现了碳排放和经济增长的相对脱钩,但其总体脱钩程度仍低于珠三角、长三角、京津冀地区;③各城市追赶脱钩状态不同,大部分城市处于强负脱钩状态,即与标杆城市相比,经济发展水平差距在逐步扩大,但是碳强度差距逐步缩小。未呈现强负脱钩的城市主要集中在河南、宁夏与甘肃省。因此,为促进黄河流域低碳集约发展,实现经济增长与碳排放的绝对脱钩,应考虑在城市自身发展基础上,借鉴标杆城市和发达地区低碳发展经验,制定合理的人口、产业和节能减排政策。

In the context of ecological environment protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the carbon emissions peak by 2030 in China,with the help of the Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficients and pursuing decoupling models,this study analysed the carbon emission characteristics and decoupling status of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2019.The results are as follows:(1)During the sample period,both total and per capita carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin continued to rise and the average annual growth rate dropped from 6.5%and 5.4%to 1.6%and 0.8%respectively around 2010.The carbon intensity decreased markedly,which presented an average annual decline of 5.1%.(2)Generally,91.2%of the cities in the Yellow River Basin have achieved weak decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth.The overall decoupling status is better than the national average but at a lower degree than the Pearl River Delta,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.(3)The state of pursuing decoupling differs among the cities.Most cities are currently in a strong negative decoupling state,and the gap in economic development may be increasing as compared to the benchmark cities,but the carbon intensity gap is narrowing.Cities that do not present strong negative decoupling are mainly located in Henan Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,and Gansu Province.Therefore,in order to promote the low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin and further realize the strong decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions,cities in this area should consider drawing on the experience of the benchmark cities and developed regions,and reasonably formulate policies for population,industry,energy conservation,and emission reduction.