基于改进ISM和MICMAC的增量配电网项目投资风险影响因素研究

Research on Investment Risk Factors of Incremental Distribution Network Project Based on Improved ISM and MICMAC

识别增量配电网项目投资风险的影响因素,对于引导投资主体有效决策,促进项目落地和可持续发展具有重要意义。通过文献分析和已落地项目实施经验反馈等识别出增量配电网项目投资风险的主要影响因素,利用改进解释结构模型构建具有4个层级的增量配电网项目投资风险影响因素,确定各影响因素间的层级递阶关系。并借助交叉影响矩阵相乘法深层次解析各个影响因素的驱动力和依赖性,进一步提升投资主体对增量配电网项目投资风险影响因素的认知,加大对项目投资风险的管控。

Identifying the influencing factors of investment risk of incremental distribution network project is of great significance to guide investors to make effective decisions and promote project implementation and sustainable development.This paper identifies the main influencing factors of incremental distribution network project investment risk through literature analysis and experience feedback of implemented projects,constructs four levels of incremental distribution network project investment risk influencing factors by using the improved interpretation structure model,and determines the hierarchical relationship among the influencing factors.With the help of multiplication of cross influence matrix,the driving force and dependence of various influencing factors are deeply analyzed,so as to further improve the investor’s understanding of the influencing factors of investment risk of incremental distribution network project and increase the control of project investment risk.