西非过洋性渔业入渔风险评价实证分析

An empirical analysis of risk assessment of China’s distant-water fisheries in west African

西非过洋性渔业是我国过洋性渔业重要组成部分,对西非过洋性渔业入渔风险的研究,有助于我国过洋性渔业健康、稳定、可持续发展。通过搜集整理西非15个国家2009—2018年近10年的风险评价指标数据,运用专家综合评价法确定指标权重,计算出15个国家近10年的入渔风险评价值,并划分预警等级。实证分析研究表明:政局稳定性、渔业合作类型、"十三五"远洋渔业海外基地布局等是对综合风险评价值影响较大的评价指标;风险逐步降低的国家有:毛里塔尼亚、塞拉利昂、科特迪瓦、加蓬、安哥拉5个国家;风险保持不变或波动的国家有:摩洛哥、塞内加尔、几内亚等9个国家;风险增加的国家有:几内亚比绍。地理分布上,西北非、西南非国家入渔风险相对较小,几内亚湾附近的国家风险相对较大;入渔风险与国家战略和政策实施有关。实证分析结果验证了过洋性渔业风险评价指标体系的科学实用性,有助于我国过洋性渔业风险管理和可持续发展。

Distant water fisheries(DWF)in the west African is an important part of China’s distant water fisheries.With the risk assessment data of 15 countries in the west African collected from 2009 to 2018,the expert comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the weight,the risk assessment value of these 15 countries in the past 10 years was calculated,and the early warning level was divided.Empirical analysis showed that the political stability,fishery cooperation type,"the 13;Five-Year Plan"overseas fishery base distribution were the important evaluation indicators that have great impacts on the comprehensive risk assessment value.The countries with risk grades from high to low were Mauritania,Sierra Leone,Cote d’Ivoire,Gabon and Angola.The risk grades remained unchanged or fluctuated in nine countries including Morocco,Senegal and Guinea.The countries with increasing risk included Guinea-Bissau.In terms of geographical distribution,the risk grade was relatively low in the countries of northwest Africa and southwest Africa but relatively large in the countries near the Gulf of Guinea.The risk grade was related to the implementation of national strategies and policies.Our findings verified the scientific practicability of the risk assessment index system of China’s DWF,which was helpful to the risk management and sustainable development of China’s DWF.