减排增汇目标下中国粮食生产效率的测度及分布动态演进

The measurement and its distribution dynamic evolution of grain production efficiency in China under the goal of reducing pollution emissions and increasing carbon sink

考虑粮食生产中的净碳汇和面源污染排放,构建全局EBM模型测算2001—2018年中国30个省份及三大功能区的粮食生产效率,借助分布动态模型考察中国粮食生产效率的动态演进趋势。研究发现:(1)中国粮食生产效率总体水平不高,样本期间呈现先降低后增长的态势,主产区粮食生产效率高于主销区和产销平衡区。(2)三大功能区粮食生产效率的分布动态存在差异,主产区由"多级分化"趋向于"两级分化",地区差距逐渐缩小;主销区分化程度有所加剧;产销平衡区"多级分化"逐渐加强。(3)中国粮食生产效率总体上存在向中高水平聚集的趋势。相比高效率省份分布流动性较强,低效率省份存在明显的"贫困陷阱",粮食低水平发展的恶性循环不易突破。

Considering the net carbon sink and non-point source pollution emissions in grain production,this paper constructs a global EBM model to calculate the grain production efficiency of 30 provincial-level regions and three functional areas in China from 2001 to 2018,and investigates the dynamic evolution trend of China’s grain production efficiency with the help of dynamic distribution model.The results show that:(1)The overall level of grain production efficiency in China is not high,showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing during the sample period,and the grain production efficiency in the main producing areas is higher than that in the main selling areas and the production and marketing balance areas.(2)There are differences in the distribution dynamics of grain production efficiency among the three functional areas.The main production areas change to"two-level differentiation"from"multi-level differentiation",and the regional gap is gradually narrowing.The differentiation degree of the main sales areas has been intensified.The"multi-level differentiation"in the production and marketing balance area has been gradually strengthened.(3)China’s grain production efficiency has a trend of gathering to medium and high levels.Compared with the provinces with high efficiency,those with low efficiency have obvious"poverty trap",and the vicious circle of low-level food development is not easy to break.