域外国家与南海周边地缘经济联系强度演化与态势评估

The evolution and situation assessment of geo-economic linkages intensity between countries outside the region and the surrounding regions of the South China Sea

随着全球经济重心逐渐向亚太地区转移以及区域地缘经济联系日趋紧密,南海战略地位日益凸显,南海周边已成为全球重要战略区域和亚洲最重要的国际地缘问题区域。运用社会网络分析法、修正引力模型等方法,从贸易、投资、旅游等视角切入探究域外国家与南海周边区域的地缘经济联系演变及态势。结果表明:①2005—2019年域外国家与南海周边区域的贸易联系日益紧密但贸易合作的非均衡化现象较为突出,域内出口贸易网络呈现以中国为核心,老挝、文莱和柬埔寨为边缘地带的相对稳定网络结构特征。②域外国家对南海周边区域的投资规模显著提升但投资规模的两极化差异态势较为明显,投资区位呈现由高度集中向渐进式扩散转变态势。③域外国家入境旅游流持续增长,旅游网络由中国为单一核心演变为中国和泰国为双核心的网络结构,旅游目的地日趋多元化。④域外国家与南海周边区域地缘经济联系强度有所降低,但与东盟9国地缘经济联系强度整体上升;虽然以美日为代表的域外国家逐渐减弱与中国的地缘经济联系,但地缘经济联系网络整体仍然呈现以中国为核心,以泰国和新加坡为次核心的网络结构。

With the gradual shift of the global economic center of gravity to the Asia-Pacific region and the increasingly close regional geo-economic linkages,the strategic position of the South China Sea has become increasingly prominent,and the surrounding regions of the South China Sea have become an important global strategic region and Asia’s most important international geopolitical problem regions.Research methods of social network analysis and modified gravity models are applied to explore the evolution and trend of the geo-economic relationship between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea from the perspectives of trade,investment and tourism.The results show that:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the trade linkages between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea have become increasingly close,but the imbalance of trade cooperation is more prominent,and the intra-regional export trade network presents a relatively stable network structure with China as the core and Laos,Brunei and Cambodia as the periphery.(2)The investment scale of countries outside the region in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea has increased significantly,but the polarization of the investment scale is more obvious,and the investment location has shown a shift from high concentration to gradual diffusion.(3)The inbound tourism flow of countries outside the region continues to grow,the tourism network has evolved from a single core of China to a dual core network structure of China and Thailand,and tourism destinations have become increasingly diversified.(4)The strength of geo-economic linkages between countries outside the region and in the surrounding regions of the South China Sea has decreased,but generally,the strength of geo-economic linkages with the nine ASEAN countries has increased.Although the countries outside the region,represented by the United States and Japan,have gradually weakened their geo-economic linkages with China,the overall geo-economic linkages network still presents a network structure with China as the main core and Thailand and Singapore as the secondary cores.