技术与产业趋同能否带动区域经济发展——基于动态空间杜宾模型的分析

Can the Convergence of Technology and Industry Drive the Development of Regional Economy--A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model Based Study

运用中国30个省市2000—2018年间面板数据建立动态空间杜宾模型,检验了技术进步与产业结构变迁趋同对区域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,技术进步虽然能够推动本省市的经济增长,但其空间溢出效应并不显著;而产业结构优化升级不仅未能显著推动本省市的经济增长,其空间溢出效应也不显著,而且这类情况在东、中、西部地区的分区域研究中更加明显。由此说明,将产业结构由“重”向“轻”调整、推动全要素向新技术等高生产率行业转型的产业发展战略并不适用于所有地区。因此,从政策层面上讲,区域发展更应强调发展方略的因地制宜、实事求是,不可背离该地区的经济禀赋与跨越该地区的经济发展阶段。

Using the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China 2000-2018,this paper establishes a dynamic spatial Durbin model to test the impact of the convergence of technological progress and industrial structure change on regional economic growth.The results show that although technological progress can promote the economic growth of the province,its spatial spillover effect is not significant;The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure not only failed to significantly promote the economic growth of the province,but also its spatial spillover effect is not significant,and this kind of situation is more obvious in the subregional research of the eastern,central and western regions.This shows that the industrial development strategy of adjusting the industrial structure from“heavy”to“light”and promoting the transformation of all factors of production to high productivity industries such as new technology is not applicable to all regions.Therefore,from the policy level,regional development should emphasize the development strategy of adjusting to local conditions,and should not deviate from the region’s economic endowment and leap over the region’s economic development stage.