西北电网风场数值预报的大气边界层参数化方案适用性

Applicability of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes for Wind Field Numerical Prediction in China Northwest Power Grid

精准的风速预报是风电功率预测的基础,风场的预报评估是提升风电功率预测水平的有效途径之一。基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(weather research and forecast,WRF),采用风险评分、相关系数及均方根误差等定量分析指标,结合西北电网数值预报结果,开展6种大气边界层参数化方案的适用性研究。结果表明:YSU(Yonsei University)方案预报的地面纬向风平均相关系数最高为0.87、均方根误差最低仅1.0 m/s,且地面经向风、850 hPa和500 hPa高度场、以及500 hPa风速预报效果均最优,是提升西北电网风场预报的最优边界层方案。本研究为西北电网风场(以及其他气象要素)预报效果的提升指明了方向。

Accurate wind speed prediction is the basis of wind power forecasting,and the evaluation of wind prediction is one of the effective ways to improve wind power forecasting.Based on the mesoscale numerical weather research and forecast model(WRF),and combined with the numerical forecast results of the Northwest Power Grid,the applicability of six kinds of planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes was studied by using quantitative analysis indicators such as threat score,correlation coefficient and root mean square error.The results show that the YSU(Yonsei University)scheme is the optimal boundary layer scheme for improving the wind field of the Northwest Power Grid,the highest average correlation coefficient of the surface zonal wind is 0.87,the lowest root mean square error is only 1.0 m/s,the forecast effect of the surface meridional wind,and 850 hPa and 500 hPa height fields,and 500 hPa wind speed is the optimal.This study points out the direction for the improvement of the forecast effect of wind field(and other meteorological elements)for Northwest Power Grid.