耦合社会经济发展的广州市水安全保障分析

Analysis of water security guarantee in Guangzhou coupled with social economic development

城市水安全是经济可持续发展的基础,水资源与社会经济的协调发展是水安全保障的重要内容。分别计算了广州市各辖区水资源与社会经济协调发展度,对水资源开发利用水平与社会经济水平协调发展度的时空变化特征进行了耦合性与系统性分析。结果表明:广州市协调发展度整体呈中等水平、上升趋势,早期表现为社会经济发展滞后,后期主要表现为水资源水平滞后于社会经济水平;2008─2017年,各辖区的协调发展呈较为显著的上升趋势,秩相关系数平均为0.896;此外,各辖区水资源与社会经济协调发展度呈现分化特征,早期存在低级协调发展的辖区,至后期虽然各区协调发展度稳步提高,但仍有辖区产业发展与水资源配置不合理,未来在政策方针引导下,可进一步提升各区协调发展度。

Urban water security is an important prerequisite for the sustainable development of social economy.The coordinated development between the water resources and the socio-economy is an important part of urban water security.The coordinated development degrees of water resources and social economy in each jurisdiction of Guangzhou City are calculated in this study,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the coordinated development degree of water resources development and utilization level and social economy level are systematically and coupling analyzed.The results show that the overall coordinated development degree of Guangzhou City presents a moderate level and an upward trend.The social and economic development in the early stage lags behind,and the water resources lag behind the socio-economic level in the later stage.From 2008 to 2017,the coordinated development degrees of various jurisdictions showed a relatively significant upward trend,with an average rank correlation coefficient of 0.896.In addition,the coordinated degrees of water resources and social economy in various jurisdictions show a differentiated characteristic.In the early stage,there are districts with low-level coordinated development.The coordinated development degree of each district has steadily increased in the later stage,but there are still irrational industrial development and water resources allocation in some districts.In the future,the coordinated development degree of each district will be enhanced under the guidance of policies and guidelines.